Showing posts with label Warcraft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warcraft. Show all posts

Friday, June 7, 2013

Your ideas about WoW players are wrong - engagement bias

Not that kind of engagement
The people you see when you log into WoW, no matter which server you play on, do not comprise a representative sample of the people who play WoW. 

That sentence might seem a bit surprising but I can assure you that it's 100% true. The primary culprit here is engagement bias, which is something you have to consider when you're analyzing a game-as-a-service, like WoW. Suppose 7 million people play WoW in a given week. Let's look at them by how engaged they hypothetically are (as measured by how many days they played that week).

EngagementPlayer Count% played today# played today% DAU in bucket
1 Days1,000,00014.29%142,8573.57%
2 Days1,000,00028.57%285,7147.14%
3 Days1,000,00042.86%428,57110.71%
4 Days1,000,00057.14%571,42914.29%
5 Days1,000,00071.43%714,28617.86%
6 Days1,000,00085.71%857,14321.43%
7 Days1,000,000100%1,000,00025%

Here we see that if you look at the people who play on a particular day (DAU - Daily Active User), there is a distinct bias towards users who have a higher weekly engagement. Side note: players who play in a given week are called WAU. Even though the WAU are evenly distributed among the engagement buckets, the DAU are heavily skewed towards the highly engaged. Then again, WAU isn't how Blizzard likely defines 'player' for WoW, they likely use subscribers as the definition of the player, since that's how they get their money and the $15 a low-engaged player gives them is the same as the $15 a heroic raider sends them.

What this means is that the people that you see every day in the game aren't really a good representation of WoW's subscriber base. People aren't as engaged with the game as they appear to be. From a development and design standpoint, the highly-engaged users are the least likely to let their subscription lapse, so features are often made to appeal to the casual crowd/make casual players more engaged. If you look at the history of WoW this is what you'll see. Even heroic raiding was oriented around this because it allowed them to make regular raiding easier and more accessible to the casual player.

This is just one example of engagement bias, which is a recurring problem in user-centric data analysis and therefore is a recurring problem in the games-as-a-service industry. Engagement bias is the phenomenon that more active users are often more likely to be counter/sampled.

Back when I was working on analyzing the results of my 2011 WoW Survey, one question I wanted to answer was "What are the correlations between classes?" meaning that I wanted to know which classes a player was more or less likely to play if they played another class. For example, "Are people who play Warlocks more or less likely to play a Death Knight than someone who plays a Rogue?"

Suppose that the average respondent to my survey listed two different classes among the ones that they play. At the time, this means that roughly 20% of respondents played any particular class (class representation actually varied wildly). When I pulled the percent of Warlock players that ALSO played Paladins I found a much higher number, 40% or greater. This baffled me for a long time. For each combination of classes, this same thing happened, the percentage of X players that also played Y was higher than the percent of the general population that played class Y.

Why was this?

Among the people that I surveyed, they varied widely among the number of characters they played. Some people only listed 1 or 2 characters, some listed 10 or more. When I selected all the players who played a Warlock, the highly-engaged players (those with more characters) were more likely to be in that group than the low-engaged players (those with few characters). So the group of Warlock players had, on average, more characters than the general population. So when I calculated how many of them also played Paladins, I received a much higher number than with the general population.

Of course, there was something else that would skew the results of my analysis. I got my data not via the actual numbers but by getting survey results that mainly came from MMO-Champion. Since these are people that are participating in the WoW community, they are going to tend to be more engaged than the general WoW playing population.

Engagement bias is just one of the many things you have to keep in mind when you're analyzing game players. For example, during my WoW survey, I also found that MMO-Champion users tend to skew more male than respondents from other sources that I've used. For this reason and more when I was doing my analysis I was careful to make sure to state that the numbers were not to be taken as absolute facts, but as being "directional", meaning that it'll likely indicate what the differences between two groups or what may be more or less popular for a group even if the exact values aren't true for the overall population.

This is just one of the slew of problems that you run into when doing user-facing data analysis, something which I'll be covering in a later post.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Wildstar just might get me to switch from WoW

I know I just got back into WoW but WildStar looks really phenomenal. WildStar is a beautiful looking MMO that's currently in development. It looks absolutely fantastics. The characters look very expressive and the environments look fantastic. It's currently in beta right now and I'm really enjoying seeing how it turns out. There are two factions, the Dominion and the Exiles. Right now it looks like there are currently 6 classes, of which four have been revealed and they all look really cool.

One of WildStar's features is one that I wish WoW had, player housing. In WildStar, your house floats on a rock in the sky and is highly customizable and interactive. There are several different house models, it can get attacked, your friends can visit it, and you can return to it from anywhere at anytime. This will be a really great place for me to log in and log out so I don't log in and have the first thing I see be a mass of people. People stress me out, and having this space to get into the game will be really great.

Another really cool looking feature is Paths. Just like WoW, WildStar will have races and classes but in addition to that it will have Paths. Paths are all about the content that you like to do. If you like to fight, be a soldier. If you like seeing all the sights, be an explorer. If you like to learn all the lore, then be a scientist. And if you like to craft things, then be a settler. Soldiers get more combat content, scientists get missions to examine objects, explorers head to remote areas, and settlers build building and other things. Any race/class can be any one of the classes and having them work together provide great benefits to a group.

There are tons of other things that look great about Wildstar, like movement. It not only has jumping, but double-jumping. It also has rolling and dashing. It looks like it's currently targeted for release later this year.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Getting Back Into WoW After a Long Break

The good old days
It's been a long time since I've played WoW (and it's by no means the first time this has happened). So long, in fact, that when my account lapsed I considered not renewing it. Mists has been a hard expansion for me, though I don't know how much of that has to do with Mists itself and how much of it is a lingering effect of Cataclysm. That being said, I still only have one level 90 and my second highest character is level 86.

Coming back to WoW is hard. Logging into old mains means coming back to bags full of items which you don't remember what they're for, abilities which might not (or definitely will not, depending on how long you've been away) work the same way they used to, you're behind on content, and you're definitely rusty, potentially having lost some of the muscle memory of how to play your class. My level 90 Priest has all these things in her bags and all these abilities I don't remember how to use and there are all these dungeons and scenarios I have no idea how to run. I'm worried that if I tried to run anything I'd be terrible and everybody would hate me. My level 86 Druid is primarily Guardian but the class/spec changed so much in Mists that I don't even know how to play him anymore.

WoW isn't alone in this issue. Any game-as-a-service that updates its content and systems is going to have this problem with returning players having trouble catching up. They've certainly worked on making coming back into the game easier for players over the years. Simplifying the talent and abilities systems have done wonders for that. But the baggage of items, quests, and being behind on content is a harder problem to solve. I could just vendor the items but that's sub-optimal in terms of profitability and my brain tells me, "No! Don't do it!"

The game is complicated now. It may be (debatably) easier now than it was in Vanilla but it's far more complicated. With daily quests, normal and heroic scenarios, normal and heroic dungeons, normal and heroic raids, justice and valor points, LFR, and reputations (some of which are gated) PVE is incredibly more complicated than it has ever been. PVP has evolved significantly from what it was in Vanilla as well.

So I've been eschewing my high-level characters since coming back to WoW and have been leveling some classes I haven't leveled to the level-cap before. I've got a Draenei Prot Warrior (yet ANOTHER attempt at doing so), a Human Affliction Warlock, and a Night Elf Assassination Rogue. None of them are level 30 or above yet but I've really been enjoying the experience. Starting a new character lets me forget about all the things that have changed that keep me from playing the characters that are at higher levels. It lets me forget that things used to be different and that I don't know how the game works anymore.

I haven't really leveled a pure DPS class before, and leveling these has so far been really fun. I hope that this will help me get back into the game and really get back into endgame activities, which I haven't done since early Cataclysm. If you're having trouble getting into WoW lately, or haven't played in a long time, I highly recommend rolling a new character, it's very freeing and I haven't lapsed as quickly as I have in the past. I'm really looking forward to what these new characters will bring me.

Monday, June 3, 2013

3 features I wish WoW had

A little patch of home
WoW is a pretty old game, and that's given it plenty of time to develop many features. There are, however, tons of things that people still want in the game. For a long time this was things like race changes, server transfers, and transmog, all of which we have been given. One thing that people have been wanting for a long time has been private areas, such as player or guild housing.

Housing is something that I would love to see in WoW. I'd really like to see it done right. The house in Halfhill doesn't fit what I really want. I would love it if we could each have our own private housing but it'd be part of a guild neighborhood. The guild neighborhood could have shared projects where the group could work together to add things like a bar, profession areas, things like a moonwell. It would then make a great personal gold and time sink but also a group time sink. It would also be great at giving a group identity and group goals. Maybe if they had player housing there'd be fewer people having RP sex in low-level inns.

The second thing I'd really like to see is the ability to mail items to my bank. One really annoying thing when questing is running out of bag space because there are too many things in your bags that you're saving for the AH or professions. If I could mail items to my bank then I'd be able to alleviate that problem without having access to my bank, which is something they no probably don't want us to have.

The last item is most concerning to me as part of the community. I've made tons outside of the game that also happen to play the game. However, we often can't play with each other unless we go out of our way to level a character of the faction opposite the one that we normally play. I'd love to be able to run dungeons and do raids with Real ID friends. I understand that multi-faction dungeons/raiding could break the immersion a bit but it would be very loved feature by the WoW community.

I can't but wonder if we'll ever see features like these.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Ding! Experience Points are Weird

I don't remember where I was when I hit level 60, but I hit level 70 while fighting on some tower in Shadowmoon Valley. I hit level 80 in the middle of Scholazar Basin. I hit level 85 while helping the Earthen Ring in the Twilight Highlands. I hit level 90 while killing bug people in the Dread Wastes. 

While these places are all very different, they have one thing in common: I dropped whatever I was doing, went to go do something else, and questioned when, if ever, I would go back. This is my experience with all of my characters when they reach the level cap, and I wager it's what happens to most everyone else, as well.

And that's weird.

It's weird to have the story flow interrupted by these non-story events that send me away. That tell me I'm done, even though the story isn't over. It seems like it would be more natural and much cooler if these important game moment synced up with important story moments. The main culprit in this is experience point. Every thing you do gives you experience points, as long as it's something that's deemed suitably difficult (the enemy/quest isn't too low of a level).

In some ways the game experience would be improved if leveling were tied to moments instead of a bar filling, but there's far too much that would complicate the matter. What about experience gained through PVP? Is grinding completely purposeless? What about people trying to level as pacifists? What about experience gain bonuses (heirlooms, rested XP, etc)?

Perhaps quests and PVP and killing NPCs can still grant experience and still potentially give you levels, but certain quests that signify major moments will make you character level, regardless of how far away the next level is, as long as your current level is at or below a certain point. Making it so that you will only level up if you're below a certain level will help keep people from manipulating this system to gross effect.

This could make the questing experience more interesting, by making those big moments more impactful. It would seem that it would need to be a rare occurrence, at most once per zone, to try and keep people from exploiting it. A question still remains about what to do with level caps. Would you want to save those for some expansion defining moment? Or would you want them to just occur at some major moment like other levels could? It's a tough question and there are pluses to both sides.

All said, I'm tired of reaching these very important game events during very minor story events. Sometimes they aren't even during any sort of story event at all. It's certainly an interesting idea and a change that I would welcome. What do you think? 

Thursday, May 31, 2012

BlizzCon 2013 Predictions

"100% chance we'll see these costumes." or "BlizzCon dot j p e g"
A while back, much to the dismay of everybody, Blizzard announced that there would be no BlizzCon in 2012. They cited a lack of good information to dispense, since I guess game would either be to close or to far from completion to talk about. But they did assure us that they're planning on hosting on for 2013. Since it's never too early to speculate, here are my predictions for what we'll see at BlizzCon 2013.

At this point, I expect that Starcraft II's first expansion Heart of the Swarm will be released. We first got details about the game's new multiplayer units at Blizzcon 2011. The multiplayer for the game will be playable in June at the MLG Spring Championship and I highly doubt that it would take Blizzard another year from then to release the game. Especially since Starcraft II was released back in summer of 2010.

The big question for me at this point is whether we'll hear anything about a Diablo III or World of Warcraft expansion. Since Diablo III just came and people expect Mists of Pandaria to be released by the end of summer, both games would be a year of more past their release by the time BlizzCon would roll around. If we were to only get one announcement, I would expect a WoW announcement, since they are trying to stick to a schedule when it comes to WoW releases and since WoW is the largest property for BlizzCon.

 Titan. If for some reason we don't get a WoW, Diablo III, or Starcraft II announcement, then I'd have to bet we'll have a reveal of Titan. We're getting to the point with Titan where there is always hope, but little reliability of prediction. All I can say is that if we do get a reveal of Titan, I will be incredibly excited.

It's not games that I'm most looking forward to about BlizzCon 2012. What I'm really looking forward to most about BlizzCon is the potential of meeting my internet friends and guildies! Seriously, you all. I'll be so psyched to meet those of you that I can. I went to BlizzCon '07 and '08 but I've never gone to BlizzCon to meet guildies before so that will be a new experience for me.

We'll have to get together, alright?

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

WoW: MoP Drop Rate Statistics Calculators

Normal Loot

Drop Rate
Number of Kills
Probability of drop =
Probability
Kills Needed =
Average Next Drop Prob Median
??? ??? ≤???

LFR Drops

Drops per boss
Pieces eligible
Pieces Needed
Average Next Drop Prob Median
??? ??? ≤???

Explanation of the Normal Loot section
First, you'll have to enter in the drop rate. From that, the table below will populate. It will tell you the average number of kills needed for the piece to drop, the probability that it will drop on the next kill (which should be equivalent to the entered probability) and the median number of kills required to see the item drop. If, for example the median number of kills is 4, then there is a 50% or better chance it will have dropped on or before the fourth kill.

Second, if you enter in the number of kills that you've performed, then it will tell you the probability that the item should have dropped at least once in those kills. If you enter in something in the "Probability" field, it will tell you the number of kills needed to have that probability of the item dropping at least once.

For example, if you have a drop rate of .5 and 5 kills, there is a 0.968 (actually 0.9875, but the results are rounded) probability that the item will drop at least once in those five kills. If the drop rate is still 0.5 and you enter a probability of .90, it tell you that 4 kills are necessary to have a 90% or better chance of the item having dropped at least once.

Explanation of the LFR Drops section
This is based on the LFR loot system that will be introduced in Mists of Pandaria. An explanation can be found here. You just enter in how many piece of loot the boss will drop among the raid, how many pieces of loot in its table you are eligible for, and how many of those pieces you actually want. When you have that entered the table will populate with the same type of information that is in the above table.

I based this on the assumption that a boss will drop a particular number of pieces. If it is the case that you have a fixed X% chance to win loot, then I will alter it. It is also based on a 25 player group. Furthermore, the top section is about a piece dropping and not necessarily that you'll win it. The bottom section involves you winning a piece that you want.

If you have any questions about this or about loot drops, please don't hesitate to ask below. If you have comments, recommendations or requests, then please ask.

Monday, May 28, 2012

10 Things I've Never Done in WoW

Turn into an ogre and swim in lava? Done it.
Bravetank posted a writeup of 10 things they've never done in WoW, and it has similarly inspired me to do the same. This may or may not have to do with me not writing about WoW in a long time.

Never have I ever...
  1. ...cleared any Cataclysm raids. The guild I started the expansion with wasn't capable, and I just haven't made an effort to get that done. This is all despite the fact that my current guild does raid every week. I just have trouble getting inspired to pull the time together to do so. No LFR. I only completed Baradin Hold when it had one boss in it.
  2. ...leveled a Horde character past the low 60s. My highest level horde character is a Forsaken warrior who's still in Hellfire Peninsula. I started playing as Horde, but fell out of playing Horde because Sarah and I wanted to level a paladin and a shaman together, and thus we rolled Draenei (since this was before Cataclysm when Tauren gained paladins).
  3. ...leveled through the 1-60 content after Cataclysm. I think this is mainly because I took a break during the middle of Cataclysm. I know that there is a ton of really great stuff out there and I really want to see it.
  4. ...leveled a plate wearer to 85. I have a level 80 Death Knight from Wrath that just kinda happened? I started it out of curiosity and that curiosity carried me to 80 where he stagnated. I'm currently leveling a Blood Elf warrior who is in his 20s.
  5. ...done the Molten Front. I'm working on it right now and I HAVE to do it. I have a thing about hippogryphs and bear pets. I got both of the hippogryphs from the Argent Tournament as well as the bear, squire, and the squire's horse. The Argent Tournament had a TON of great stuff.
  6. ...gotten a Amani Bear. I was upset that they removed the bear from Zul'Aman back in patch 3.0 and was so happy that they added the bear back into the revamped Zul'Aman. This is another thing that my guild is doing that I for some reason haven't gotten involved in.
  7. ...used a highly customized user interface. I use the base interface (I don't even have a boss mod or recount right now). I don't think I actually have any addons at the moment.
  8. ...been an auction house aficionado. I just post my stuff just below where other people have it posted. I've very rarely bought an item and flipped it for a higher price or bought something to make it into something else to sell at a higher price. An AH Baron, I am not.
  9. ...read a Warcraft novel. The only WoW fiction that I've read was some of the comics. The Ashbringer series of comics was quite excellent and I highly recommend reading it. But there is no way that you could get me to read a novel.
  10. ...gotten any of the Cataclysm drakes. I just realized that while writing this. It seems like it'd be prudent to do so. I think I'd like to do this through the Glory of the Cataclysm Hero achievement. 
So what have you never done? My list is pretty decent and I really hope to accomplish some of these some day.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Differential Equations and Support Tickets

Slope fields are very useful in Differential Equations.
This one approximates the situation described below.


"It's been 3 days and my ticket still hasn't been resolved, this is bullshit"

"Why don't they just hire some temp support staff? Then they could just work through the backlog and then fire them and we'd have instantaneous response times."

I'm back with another entry that nobody asked for. Here I'm going to be talking about yet another practical use for mathematics that relates to World of Warcraft.

We often have to deal with situations where we have to wait for something to get resolved by someone else. And we'll find ourselves wondering why it's taking so long. We wonder why the queue is so long. We wonder why they don't just hire somebody else to work through the backlog.

The truth is that it probably wouldn't solve the problem. But looking at that is probably a question for differential equations. Normal equations relate to quantities. Here we'd be looking at the length of the support queue as a function of time or some other factor. For the purpose of this analysis I'll be looking at time. Often times it's incredibly difficult or impossible to come up with a function that describes certain situations. However, it can be relatively easy to come up with an equation that describes how a particular value changes.

You may have taken a calculus class at some point in time. You may remember that the derivative of a function describes how that function changes with respect to its variables. If we let Q(t) be the number of messages in the support queue at any given moment in time, then we'd be more concerned with
which is the rate of which Q(t) changes over time. So now we just have to ask ourselves, what causes Q(t) to change?

Well, Q(t) increases whenever somebody has some sort of error to report. And Q(t) decreases every time a petition is answered. So we might be inclined to say that
Where p is the rate at which petition-able items occur, and a is the rate at which the game masters can answer petitions. But that's not true. If the queue size is particularly large, people become less likely to submit a petition. We may do this because we're impatient or because it may be the type of issue that could resolve itself in that amount of time (say with a bugged mob). So I'm more inclined to say that the function more closely resembles.
Where k(q) is a function is always positive but decreases as q (the length of the queue/wait time) increases. It is the probability that a person will report their issue given the length of the queue. Now, if we presume that p and a are constants, meaning that petition-able items and the rate at which petitions are answered aren't affected by anything here, then our function is a differential equation of one variable, q.

So what does this mean. Well, if the queue is long, then q is high,  k(q) is small, and the value of our derivative is negative, meaning that the queue will get shorter. If the queue is short, then q will be small, k(q) will be higher, and the value of our derivative will be positive, meaning the queue will get longer. It turns out that if p and a remain constant, then the length of the queue will tend towards a value for which
 When the derivative is zero, that means that the length of the queue stays the same. So the length of the queue will tend to wards a particular length and then remain stable, provided p and a don't change. This is especially true of more demanding queues, such as the post office, where you must physically wait in line. It's still true for passive queues, such as WoW reporting system.

So hiring temp workers to reduce the queue length won't work, because once those temp workers are gone the queue length will return to normal. This is why it's very important for Blizzard (and other agencies) to create more automated support systems, so that smaller, easier-to-fix problems can be handled automatically and bypass the queue.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

WoW Survey Results: behind the scenes of "crossplay"

I tend to round to two decimal places for all the stuff I do, just so you know. I like two decimal places because it's the same level of accuracy that you get with money; so it feels specific without being overly so.

During the writing of my post on crossplay, I encountered a problem. When I was looking at the difference in crossplay between the young and the old group, I wanted a way to talk about whether a particular increase for a race or class was more or less than the average increase. I've included a small sample of one of those tables below.

Crossplay by age for race
YoungerOlder
Average27.62%34.65%
Human31.28%41.51%
Troll16.67%26%
You'll notice that the last column has been removed also. That's because that's exactly what we're here to talk about. My first instinct for that last column, which I'll just refer to as the "change" column, was to just to take the difference. This would give us a difference of 10.23 for the humans and 9.33 for the trolls. I didn't like that, though, because I felt that the trolls' gain was more significant since they started off much lower than the humans.

My next instinct was to try ratios (division) for the last column. This would give the humans a result of 1.33, a ~33% increase, and the trolls a result of 1.56, a ~56% increase. While this looks good for these two numbers, I actually have conceptual problems with this as well. Suppose I included a third race here for which the young group had 90% female characters and 100% female characters for the older group. This would give us a result of 1.11 (repeating, of course). I feel that's too low though; going from having 10% male characters to zero is a pretty significant thing. So I wanted something that will scale well at the low end and at the high end. Just as gaining 10 percentage points is a big deal when you have very little, such as the trolls, it's also a big deal when there's not much left to pick from, such as for this hypothetical race.

So it occurred to me that just considering how many female characters there were would be insufficient, and that I would also need to look at how many male character there were. This is when I turned to looking at the odds. In short (if you don't want to read that link), the odds of something happening is the probability that it will happen divided by the probability it won't happen. So if the odds of something happening are 10:1, it's 10 times more likely to happen than to not happen. So I decided to look at the ratio of the odds for each age group, or as I summarized in the last post
where p is the percentage of female characters for that group. When I did all the calculations and thought about how I felt about the results, everything just looked right. The values that I felt should be bigger than others were all that way. 

So if you're wondering how this stuff get's done; that's how. It's trial, error, and intuition.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

WoW Survey Results: Looking at crossplay

Actually a dude
There's a bit of an adage about World of Warcraft that the men are men, and so are the women. This is to say that no matter what the gender of the character you're looking at is, it's likely a guy playing that character. Now, given the percentage of female players that some studies have shown and the percent of the time that players of both genders play oppositely-gendered characters, this is actually unlikely.

For this article, and forever on until I manage to find a better one, I will use the term "crossplay" to refer to when a person plays a character whose gender is different from their gender.

In general, from my survey results, male respondents engaged in crossplay ~33.96% of the time and female respondents engaged in crossplay ~9.19% of the time. Right of the bat we see that men engage in crossplay far more than women do, almost 4 times as much. If you ask, most male players would likely tell you that you spend all of your time in this game looking at your character's butt and they would like to enjoy looking at what is presented to them.

Is that all there is too it? Guys, why do (or don't) you play female characters? Ladies, why do (or don't) you play male characters? Well, we can look at this ourselves a bit while we wait for potentially helpful comments. Let's get some breakdowns in here. Unfortunately, as in the past, I can't supply a breakdown of crossplay for female respondents due to an insufficient volume of female respondents. I'm so totally bummed about that. So, if I fail to stipulate it later on, I'm just talking about crossplay by male players.

Percent of crossplay for male respondents for each class
PriestPaladinMageShamanRogueDruidHunterWarlockDeath KnightWarrior
49.2140.5738.6234.0432.8131.5329.8828.7827.5924.66

What immediately springs out for me is something that I've noticed before. We find the warlock, Death Knight and warrior are at the bottom of a list. We saw this before when I was looking at gender and class, when those were 3 of the 4 least played classes for female respondents. It's interesting that three of the four least played classes for female respondents are the least crossplayed classes for male respondents. Although pinpointing why it's this way will have the same troubles that we had back then. The correlations between armor type, role, location in battle, and theme will confuse the analysis. We also see that our light-wielders, the priest and the paladin, hold solid leads in the top spots with the cloth-wearing mage in the third spot. Let's look at this a few different ways.

Average crossplay by armor type
ClothLeatherMailPlate
38.8732.17
31.9530.94
This table shows a pretty clear trend that indicates that as you go from the lighter armor types to the heavier armor types, the average amount of crossplay by male respondents decreases. This probably plays into the aesthetics of the armor as many male players probably don't imagine a male hero wearing a robe or a female hero wearing bulky plate.

Average crossplay by role
No HealHeal
No Tank32.5241.61
Tank26.1336.05
This table show us that healers tend to have more crossplay while tanks tend to have less crossplay. Does this show that male players consider tanking to be a masculine role and healing to be a feminine role?

Average crossplay by fight location
MeleeMixRanged
28.3535.3736.62
Here we can see that male players tend to crossplay less with characters in melee and more with characters at range. I feel less certain that this one plays into real feelings and feel that it may just be a correlation with the effects of role and armor type.

The three tables above really break down what I think are some of the predominant factors that influence whether a male player will crossplay. I think that armor type and how it affects aesthetics and role/fighting location and how that affects perception really make up the most of it. I'll admit that I am not immune to this as well, but I'll get into that after this next section. Now let's look at how race influences crossplay.

Percent of crossplay for male respondents for each race
DraeneiNEBEHumanGnomeGoblinWorgenUndeadTrollDwarfOrcTauren
59.7052.8752.6040.6435.7731.3625.3322.9421.7214.8313.9212.80

There is some wide variance here, huh. Analyzing the races is different since they can't be broken into groups as easily as classes can be. The thing that tends to stick out to me, is the comparative of the female model, especially when that is compared to the male model. We see that the female models that are the most attractive (according to human standards, of course) are at the top of this list. I have complete faith that the patented female Draenei hip wiggle has played no small role in vaulting them to the front of this list. Gnomes, while certainly not having human proportions, are much like tiny humans, which is probably the factor that has placed them in the number 5 spot above all the "monstrous" races and the dwarves. Interestingly, although dwarves are quite human, moreso than the gnomes in my opinion, they are at tenth place here. I guess guys just tend to be too shallow for them. They probably couldn't handle a playing a dwarven lady anyway. One last table for this section, you probably noticed this yourself with the last one.

Crossplay by faction
AllianceHorde
38.19%25.89%

This combined with the fact that the Horde has fewer female players than the Alliance means that the Horde is a bit of a sausage fest, comparatively. Sorry Horde bros, that's just the way it is.
Also really a dude

In full disclosure I must admit that I am not immune to the draw of the female characters, although I believe my percentage is lower than the average. My very first female character was a Night Elf priest (how typical, right?) and my second female character is a human warrior, which I've talked about before (and need to play more). I honestly can't remember any others that I may have.

So it seems that the trends that drive men to play a female character are the oft-quoted attractiveness and their perception of in-game gender roles. What I'm particularly interested in is why there is such a difference in the percentage of crossplay between male and female players. Do women play so few male characters because female characters tend to be more attractive? What other components are there to this?

But wait, there's more - Age and crossplay
There is an age component to all of this, too. In general, older male players are more likely to play female characters than younger male players. Going back to the two groups that I set up for my post about the ages of male players and how that impacted what they played, I found that in general, the 18 and younger group played female characters 27.62% of the time while the 25 and older group played female characters 34.65% of the time. Futhermore, the increase from one group to another was not uniform, some groups saw a higher increase than others.

Crossplay by age for class
YoungerOlderComparison of odds*
Average27.62%34.65%1.39
Priest46.02%47.26%1.05
Mage37.27%37.24%1.00
Paladin35.33%42.71%1.36
Shaman30.08%32.88%1.14
Hunter27.27%25.51%0.91
Rogue23.85%26.84%1.17
Druid23.81%39.87%2.12
Warlock21.11%27.78%1.44
Death Knight17.65%27.75%1.79
Warrior15.15%25.48%1.91

So every group except for the hunter and the mage saw an increase in their amount of crossplay among the male respondents at they ageds. When looking at this chart, however, some of the classes increased less than the average increase. So while female characters tend to appeal more as we move from the younger group to the older group, some don't increase as much. In summary, as male players age
  • Decreased: hunter, mage
  • Increased<Average: priest, shaman, rogue, paladin
  • Increased>Average: warlock, Death Knight, warrior, druid
One thing to notice is that the classes that had the lowest percentage of female players among the younger group saw the biggest increases. It's distinctly possible that as male players get older, they tend to throw away a bit of their preconceived notions about in-game gender roles. This isn't to say that the older male players are an enlightened bunch, but just that they don't subscribe to those gender roles as strongly.

Crossplay by age for race
YoungerOlderComparison of odds*
Average27.62%34.65%1.39
Draenei58.75%53.7%0.81
Night Elf47.58%47.11%0.98
Blood Elf44.44%52.02%1.36
Human31.28%41.51%1.56
Goblin23.61%30.43%1.42
Gnome22.92%39.19%2.17
Dwarf18.18%13.25%0.69
Worgen17.65%30.84%2.08
Troll16.67%26%1.76
Undead15.79%29.27%2.21
Orc10.62%9.17%0.85
Tauren10.48%21.88%2.42

 In summary, this is
  • Decrease: dwarf, draenei, orc, Night Elf
  • Increase<Average:Blood Elf
  • Increase>Average:goblin, human, troll, worgen, gnome, undead, tauren
 One thing to notice here is that in addition to being more open to crossplay, the older male group also seems to have lost their qualms with the "monstrous" female races, with all of them except for the orc receiving significant gains in popularity. Quite frankly, I can't come up with a reason that the orc and the dwarf would have a decrease in popularity. It's puzzling to me.

I could have done the various breakdowns that I normally do but I think what we saw was pretty clear and that I would spare you all.   ;-)

Conclusion
Male crossplay is something that has many factors. In general, it seems to be affected by the attractiveness of the female model of the chosen race as well as the aesthetics of the class's armor. Futhermore, it seems to be affected by the in-game gender roles that the players seem to ascribe to their character's PVE roles.

As male players get older, things seem to change. They seem to become more willing to crossplay in general. It seems likely to me that this isn't due to an increased desire to play female characters but a loss of feeling that they have to play male characters. Furthermore, they seem to becomes more open in how they crossplay, not feeling as strong a pull to tend to those perceived in game gender roles and becoming more open to crossplaying with races that they might not find as attractive as others.

All in all, no matter how much analysis I do here, we can't conclude anything about why a particular person engages in crossplay or why they crossplay with the particular character(s) that they do. For some, it could just be about having something nice to look at. For some, it could be for roleplay purposes. For others, it can be part of their transition process as a transgendered person.

In the future, I'd like to be able to take a look at female crossplay. The fact that it is more rare makes the possibility of analyzing it all the more appealing. If I get the chance to do a study like this again in the future I will go to great steps to get a large enough number of female respondents so that I can achieve such an analysis.

Next time, I intend to look at what I'm calling "class correlations." I'll be looking at what classes tend to be played by the same person and how if one person plays one class, how likely is it that they play the other classes. Are there some classes that are much likelier to be played together than others? We'll find out.

*The comparison of odds column is calculated as follows. If p(young) is the percentage of female characters for the young group and p(old) being the same for the older group, with both being between 0 and 1, then the comparison of odds,
This is a measure of the increase in crossplay from the young group to the male group. It is the odds that a older respondent crossplays for that class divided by the odds that a younger respondent crossplays for that class.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

WoW Survey Results: Gender and Race

Cats are magic
How do men and women play World of Warcraft? We've all heard talk about the differences between male and female WoW players. Some of that might reflect truth, some of that may reflect enforced gender roles. But has anyone just gone out there and asked them? [Editors Note: Yes, others have. No I won't link you. -HMP]

About a year ago, shortly before patch 4.1 was released, I made a survey and tried to distribute it among several sources, but the only place where it took off was MMO-Champion. In the survey I asked players about their age, gender, their characters, and what they liked to do when playing.

This data was collected during patch late patch 4.0, and consisted only of people who frequent MMO-Champion. As such, it's hard to apply everything here directly to our current WoW population. Absolute results should be assumed to likely not apply, but comparative results should still be quite relevant. For example, I won't talk about the ratio of male to female players or the age distributions of players in my results because I have a unique subset of the WoW playing population.

Race Choices
Player/CharacterHordeAlliance
Male51.21%48.78%
Female45.54%54.46%
 
From this table we can see that female respondents tend to play Alliance characters slightly more than male respondents do. This does not mean that the Alliance has more female players than male players. The only way to do that would be a comprehensive survey of WoW players or an in-game random sampling of players. I wouldn't trust asking people in-game, they'd probably be weirded out by someone whispering them and asking them their age and gender.

Races played by male players
HumanBlood ElfNight ElfTaurenUndeadOrcDraeneiTrollWorgenGoblinDwarfGnome
14.89%12.41%9.00%8.80%8.27%8.10%7.51%7.51%7.19%6.11%5.51%4.66%
Races played by female players
Blood ElfDraeneiNight ElfHumanWorgenTaurenTrollGoblinGnomeUndeadOrcDwarf
17.13%14.47%13.09%10.86%8.07%7.94%7.52%5.85%5.01%3.76%3.34%2.92%

Humans and elves are popular all around, but the popularity/percentage of play changes drastically depending upon the gender of the respondent. In the transition from male to female the human, undead, orc and dwarf representations drastically lowers while the draenei, blood elf, and night elf representations increase dramatically. If you consider the sexual dimorphism for each of the races and the comparative attractiveness between each race's genders it would appear that a large factor in this has to do with wanting one's character to be attractive/human. The more monstrous races tend toward the lower side of the scale, while the more attractive and human ones tend toward the higher side of the scale. In the case of the draenei, the males are large and strange, while their females are more human sized and proportioned. I can't really account for the loss of representation of humans in the transition except that their popularity may pale in comparison to the elves and the draenei.

It's important to remember that people play different races for a great variety of reasons and that the reasons listed above do not apply to everybody's decision. This merely reflects the overall trend. One reason to pick a race that actually went away quite a bit in Cataclysm was race/class combinations. They were far more restrictive prior to Cataclysm and were opened up significantly and now there are far fewer restrictions than there were.

In general, you find that the distribution of races is more even among the male players, while it is more skewed among the female players. I can't really account for what this means, though. Commenters are certainly welcome to speculate.

Next time the discussion will be about the gender of the player and the classes they play. That one is going to be a doozy.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

I don't want to tank or Getting back into WoW


I want to tank. Tanking is my most preferred role in a group. If you'll pardon my bragging, I think I'm a fantastic tank. And yet, as I stated above, I don't want to tank. When I tank, I get fully wrapped up in what's going on. I keep an eye of everything that's going on. It's my element. I put the weight of the group on my shoulders and carry them as best as I can, so everything goes as smoothly as possible for them.

Yet I'm not playing my tank right now. I transferred my priest over to Cenarion Circle to play there. I've done 2 dungeon finder groups since I got there: one just myself and one with my fiancée. It's been horrible not tanking. I've seen all the mistakes that tanks can make in a group. I've seen running into a boss before the healer has mana, running in when the healer is far out of range, running in before the dungeon finder has given us a replacement DPS, ignoring boss mechanics with fatal consequences, failure to mark targets, skipping pats/groups only to be bitten by it later, failure to drag a pull away from a pat's path, failure to call for CC, and I suspect a lack of defensive cooldown usage. This was in Zul'Aman and Grim Batol, not even the new dungeons.

"I can't go back man. Go on without me."
It's been hell for me. I feel powerless from the healer position, like I don't have enough control over the group. I can't shore up their weaknesses. As the tank, I can direct the DPS, assist healers by taking less damage, and control the position of the pull. As a healer it's much more difficult for me to do those things.

But I don't want to go back to tanking. There have been several times in my life where I've played WoW too much. I don't want to go back to those times. I'm afraid that if I go back into tanking I'll fall back into my old pattern: playing too much, working too hard to help others, and neglecting my personal life and the things I have to do in it.

The last time I really played WoW I was running dungeons (the Troll ones had just come out), trying to help guildies get through the new dungeons, researching raid tactics, trying to dissect what could be impairing others' performance in raids, coming up with things I could do to make things smoother, worrying about raid scheduling, and being frustrated when literally zero bosses would go down. I can't go back to doing that, and I'm afraid that if I go back to tanking I'll be tempted to do that kind of stuff again, worrying about things that aren't my own.

I would love to go back to my tank. But I need to know that I can do that from a place of control. The frustration from not tanking will help keep me from playing too much. Although it may be a source of new frustration.

Shadowform makes for really great screenshots, doesn't it? SimCity 3000's music was great too. I absolutely love it. It's on my list with Starcraft's Terran themes for "Most Nostalgia Inducing PC Game Music." Enjoy Some!

Saturday, October 15, 2011

BlizzCon Speculation


Sarah and I attended Blizzcons '07 and '08, but haven't attended one since. We have watched it online, just not the gone. What's funny is that now that we don't play WoW, we wish we were attending more than in past years. Next weekend is Blizzcon, so it's well past time to wonder what it going to happen at the show.

It's pretty much a given that Starcraft II: Heart of the Swarm details will come out at the show. They've been teasing silhouettes of units on the official twitter account for a while now. The show would be a really great followup to the reveal that happened a couple months back.

Not as much of a given but definitely my prediction, I think we'll get a Diablo III release date. The game is in beta right now and all of its secrets have been spilled. Furthermore, Blizzard hasn't had any big reveals at foreign events in a while, so if there ever was a time to dramatically do this, it would be now. I don't think we'll be getting any new information about the game. I'm pegging it for a holiday release for this year.

This one is a bit of a wildcard and could definitely not go this way, but I'm sticking with it. I thin we'll hear about a new WoW expansion at Blizzcon. Why?

  1. The last patch for the Cataclysm expansion is currently being tested on the public test realms. No new info could possibly be revealed about it that hasn't already been.
  2. This means that a new expansion shouldn't actually be that far away.
  3. There have been a lot of good things about this past expansion, but staying in old Azeroth hasn't been one of them. People want to explore new lands. Blizzard seems eager to get the players out of here.
  4. A trademark filing for something called "Mists of Pandaria" was filed by Blizzard a while back that includes it as a trademark for game software. It isn't conclusive, but it doesn't take away from my point either. I don't necessarily believe that this will be the title of the expansion.
  5. There's a ton in this schedule that hints at a new expansion announcement. There are several generically labeled 'World of Warcraft' panels that take place before the 'World of Warcraft: 4.3 Raid and Deathwing' panel at 5 pm on the opening day.
Tell you what, if I'm wrong about any of this, I will publish an incredibly embarrassing story. Believe me, it's really embarrassing and, to this day, only one person knows it.